Based on that picture the Holly in Classic Orange is the way to go. The swatch looks a lot lighter on my computer than it does on my colour ring, so don't be scared if it looks too light on yours as well.
I want to warn you that Coscom has been having some shipping issues in the last few months, so keep an eye on when things are being shipped. If it doesn't ship in the first two weeks or so, then contact the Admin.
If you have a large head, then Arda
is a better choice. Their Light Copper Red or Pumpkin are both similar tonally. Light Copper Red is a little lighter and brighter, with more yellows for depth and Pumpkin is a slightly darker orange that is less varied in its blend colours. I think I would go with the Pumpkin for her myself, but other people have chosen not to based on their gallery pictures.